second part
The Response
There's no strong indication that Sorceresses do not age. While Edea says in the ending that they cannot die in peace until they have given up their powers, we do not know that this means that they cannot die at all so long as they have their powers.
It should also be noted that it's not known how old Edea was when taking care of Squall and the others when they were 4 to 5 years old. If she was merely a teenager herself at the time, she may well be no older than 30 years old in the game's present, in which case there would be no reason that she should be showing obvious effects of aging. Further, it may be that she simply is younger than Cid.
The point about the Sorceress' bodies goading them to release their powers still requires the pre-conceived assumption that Sorceresses do not age, something which has yet to be soundly substantiated. It also requires assuming that none of the 13 Sorceresses that SeeD fights and kills during the course of Final Fantasy VIII would have had the will power to fight against their pain long enough to heal if they could have stayed alive as long as they wished.
As for Ultimecia's final words, it should be noted that Ultimecia seems to speak in terms of urgency when seeking to pass her powers on to Edea: "I...can't...disappear yet."
According to the one who translated the Japanese dialogue quoted above, she spoke in the imperative in that version of the game, as well, with it being obvious even without that being stated: "I cannot yet... allow myself to....fade away." I find it odd that the one doing the translating drew the conclusion that it was impossible for a Sorceress to die while still in possession of their powers immediately after Ultimecia has just stated that she can't allow herself to die yet in the IMPERATIVE, implying it's something she wishes to avoid. Seeing as how she wishes to avoid dying while in possession of her powers, that's a good indicator that it's possible for her to do so.
Something to note about Japanese is that it doesn't always translate literally into English and that context must be established. In terms of context, "A sorceress cannot die while still holding on to the sorceress' power" could very well mean "In order to die in peace, a sorceress must be free of all her powers." In fact, taking into account that Ultimecia was speaking in the imperative and that the English crews translating Final Fantasy VIII would have had the benefit of being able to work with the Japanese developers to establish context (something often done when dubbing Anime), it would be illogical to assume that Ultimecia was simply stating this to convey that Sorceresses can live forever so long as they have the Sorceress Power.
With Ultimecia speaking in the imperative, her line would more likely mean something to the effect of "I must not die before I give up my powers" rather than "I can't die because my powers prevent me from doing so."
In other words, the scene seems to be indicating that Ultimecia FEARS dying before she can give up her powers, making the concept possibly similar to the Star Wars concept of dying in the Dark Side of the Force, as the Dark Jedi feared the fate that would await them should they die under such circumstances; according to Star Wars: Empire's End, to die while in the Dark Side of the Force is to be doomed to "...perpetual madness... as if to live forever like an open wound, experiencing terror without respite." It goes on to say that "That is a fate [Emperor] Palpatine wants to postpone, at all costs." Considering that the Final Fantasy developers are fans of Star Wars and have often taken inspiration from it, it seems likely to me that they might have had a similar concept in mind in regard to the Sorceress Power. In any event, Ultimecia's statement reflects an imperative, even desperate defiance of dying while still in possession of her powers, suggesting that she COULD die while she still had them.
Of course, that might leave the possibility that under normal cirumstances (i.e. not getting the hell kicked out of her), Ultimecia could have lived forever, having eternal life UNLESS dealt a mortal wound, such as is the case with Elves in Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings or Vampires in an abundant number of tales
As for the matter of Hyne's longevity possibly being indicative of Sorceresses being ageless, it's an interesting point and there's little that can be said to disprove the possibility in this regard, yet there is also nothing that necessarily supports it either, however. Hyne having immortality is not a guarantee that the Sorceresses did, as well.
It would still seem that the game might give an indication that Sorceresses are mortal in that Adel was seeking an heir:
Laguna - "What the heck has he done with his life? Don't you wonder?" "When Ellone was about 2, there was a massive hunt for girls in Esthar." "Esthar soldiers came to Winhill and Elle's parents resisted. They were killed on the spot." "The massive hunt was to find the successor for Esthar's ruler, Sorceress Adel." "Ellone was raised by Raine who lived next door. And I came to know her." "Then there was another massive hunt for a successor in Esthar again." "Elle was taken away, even though I was there..." "It's the most painful episode of my life." "So I rescued her and sent her off to Winhill. Shortly after that, Raine died." "And Ellone was sent straight to an orphanage."
The belief that it was in the event of an assassination attempt requires assuming a few things: 1) That Adel wouldn't be wounded so badly by the assassination that her body forced her to give up her powers before she could get close to Ellone (if you believe in that concept) or that she wouldn't have simply died instantly while not close to Ellone (if you don't believe in the concept of the Sorceresses living as long as they wish or until their bodies force them to give up their powers), 2) That the Sorceress Powers would go to Ellone in the first place, and 3) That Ellone would accept the powers in the event that it was required she do so.
Granted, these things also apply in the event that she intended to prepare Ellone to take her powers as she sensed her own mortality being nearly realized through natural causes, but it's far more likely for her to have been in the position to pass on her powers without being so greatly hindered if she intended to do so when she sensed her natural death coming near than if she intended to in the event that she received a mortal wound that would incite her body to begin goading her to accept death immediately. With this in mind, it's not reasonable to assume that Adel intended to have Ellone succeed her in the event of an assassination.
The point concerning Ultimecia's hair not being indicative of aging is a good one, however.
To conclude the matter of Sorceress immortality, Edea is not a valid source of an indication that Sorceresses may be ageless due to her possibly being younger than her husband and still quite a young woman herself. It also cannot be reasonably supported that Sorceresses have life so long as they have their powers. However, the idea alone that Sorceresses are AGELESS cannot be disproven, and Ultimecia's hair being grey is not necessarily indicative of aging, as all Sorceresses aside from Rinoa display altered anatomy -- at least from what would be "normal" -- of some sort.
This aspect of the theory is really not well-supported or conclusively-opposed, but with Adel seeking an heir and there being no reasonable indication that she would have intended this to be in the event of an assassination, it seems more probable that the Sorceresses are subject to aging and natural death, but, admittedly, still not strongly probable. This aspect is best regarded as neutral, but if it were to lean in favor of being for or against the possibility, the burden of reasonable assumption would lay more heavily on those seeking to promote the concept.
As for the matter of Utlimecia's final lines during the battle with her, the first five lines are likely simply making reference to the game's concept of the "Fated Children" (also the name of the game's opening song, as "Liberi Fatali" is Latin for "Fated Children"), those destined to face Ultimecia in battle:
(In Galbadia Garden.) Sorceress Edea: "So the time has come. You're the legendary SeeD destined to face me?"
Squall: (What is she talking about?)
Also note that the children were raised and trained to become SeeDs and combat Sorceresses. This battle was what their entire lives had been leading them to. The game's entire story involves pre-destination (fate).
While it could, perhaps, be inferred that the last five lines were making reference to the inevitability of losing that which is precious, seeing as how Ultimecia was absorbing all existance into herself during the battle with her, it's just as likely -- if not moreso -- that she was making a statement concerning the inevitability of SeeD's defeat and her victory, rather than some philosophical statement concerning the passage of time and loss. This aspect of the argument does nothing in favor of the theory on its own and would requite standing alongside a good deal of other support to be cosidered a valid piece of support itself.
In regard to Ultimecia's goal, it having anything to do with Squall has no reasonable connection to the goal the game TELLS US Ultimecia had. The tutorial's description of Time Compression, as follows: Time Compression - "A complete mystery. Various states of "present" are believed to become compressed. Sorceress' power from many generations may cross over to give 1 sorceress great strength. No one knows what effect this may have on regular human beings.
Note what she says before the final battle: "Your vain crusade ends here, SeeDs." "The price for your meddling is death beyond death." "I shall send you to a dimension beyond your imagining." "There, I will reign, and you will be my slaves for eternity. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!"
Furthermore, note what is said when using Scan on Ultimecia's first form during the final battle: "A sorceress trying to change the world by compressing time and taking power from all sorceresses."
Finally, take note of what is said when using Scan on her final form in the void of nothingness: "Ultimecia, transformed to absorb all time and space. Absorbing all existence as we speak."
Based on what we're shown and told, it would only seem to indicate that Ultimecia desired to rule everything, and possibly rewrite creation with herself as God. To conclude that her goal had something to do with Squall would only apply if one had already accepted Rinoa as being Ultimecia and was using backwards reasoning to determine a purpose for using Time Compression. In other words, it would be using the conclusion as support for the evidence, something that doesn't work when trying to support the conclusion itself.
While it's true that Ultimecia would have full control over time and Rinoa's words may have indicated a desire for time to suit her wishes, again, Ultimecia expresses only a desire to have power and rule. There's no indication given that she cares about Squall in any capacity, nor does she ever so much as express recognition toward him. Were Rinoa to have gone insane because of losing Squall and previously have been trying to control time to get back to him, even if she had forgotten this, it's reasonable to expect that she would AT LEAST show recognition toward him -- if not affection -- in some way, rather than simply trying to kill him, and possibly have hinted in some way -- even if she didn't understand it herself -- that she had been seeking someone else in the past aside from just Ellone. For that matter, her declaration to the SeeDs that they would be her slaves was addressed to them as a group, which would include Squall. Further, if he falls during the battle with her, he can be absorbed into time the same as the rest of the party.
To conclude this matter, Ultimecia's goal is never indicated to have possibly had anything to do with Squall nor does she ever express any recognition toward him, despite the loss of him supposedly being what sent her down the road to insanity. For this aspect to be of any indication toward Rinoa being Ultimecia, one would have already had to have accepted the concept and, thus, be working backwards in their reasoning.
As for the matter of the location of Ultimecia's castle, consider that Ultimecia hated SeeDs -- whom she knew were destined to face her in battle one day ("You're the legendary SeeD destined to face me?") -- and that she had slaughtered them shortly before casting the Time Compression Spell, made evident by their bodies being scattered across the beach behind
Edea's House.
They don't appear to have been dead for long, so it's not as though Ultimecia built the Castle, killed the SeeDs and then parked it there many years before with the intention of it remaining there forever. Also, the bloody thing FLOATS. Why build a floating castle to begin with if you're going to park it in one spot?
The dead bodies of those SeeDs are a testament to Ultimecia's reason for anchoring the castle there. It makes much more sense -- especially in light of Ultimecia's hatred of the SeeDs and the obvious short amount of time that those SeeDs had been dead -- to conclude that Ultimecia parked the Castle there and slaughtered the remaining SeeDs to settle a grudge before casting Time Compression.
The Castle being located above where the SeeDs had been brought together and raised for a time also allows for another point of emphasis on the Fated Children concept, as did the Orphanage being Squall and the others' point of focus when passing through the Time Compression wave in an attempt to arrive in Ultimecia's era. As was the case with the overall concept of Ultimecia seeking to use Time Compression to meet Squall, this on its own doesn't serve as any evidence toward supporting the concept that Rinoa is Ultimecia, and would only apply if one had already accepted the concept and was using backwards reasoning.
We're not given reason to believe that Rinoa had a need -- or desire -- to continue using GFs after the defeat of Ultimecia. To assume she did is an unsupported assumption. Granted, we know that Ultimecia had some possible GF usage due to Tiamat being a monster under her control within her castle, but that's not indicative of Rinoa's GF usage, nor do we know if there had been any other GFs that Ultimecia even might have used. Unless she actually Junctioned herself to Tiamat -- something we can't even be sure of -- and possibly more GFs than just him, we don't know that she would have suffered any memory loss, really.
Again, Ultimecia having control of Tiamat only tells us that Ultimecia had been having contact with at least one GF before she fought SeeD in her era. That conveys nothing of Rinoa's GF usage unless one has already accepted that Rinoa is Ultimecia and is, again, using backwards reasoning.
Once more, I must reiterate that if losing Squall was the main reason for Rinoa going insane, it stands to reason that we would have seen some measure of recognition toward him on Ultimecia's part. Instead, she displays no recognition or affection toward him, merely tries to kill him, and tends to address SeeD as a whole.
Moving on to the matter of Ultimecia's name and it possibly being a derivation of "Artemisia" and with Ultimecia's actions possibly reflecting a Rinoa who "became" Artemisia, while it's certainly an interesting bit of information, I don't think that's a very strong bit of support when debating in terms of the game itself and it's better to stick with just the matters within the game itself when doing so, I've learned. For instance, no matter how tempting it might be when arguing that JENOVA was controlling Sephiroth in FFVII, pointing out that JENOVA means "New God" and that the Sephiroth is the Kabbalistic term for the interrelated divine emanations of God which will lead back to him -- thus, it being a tool of God -- is not a practical point to make simply because the names themselves might have been as deep as the inspiration went, with there being no higher allegory intended.
By the way, the castle that Ultimecia has erected in no way resembles the
Mausoleum of Mausolus. In fact, it seems to be in a condition quite the opposite of how Artemisia treated the tomb of her husband. Whereas she was trying to achieve perfection with it and would have abhorred the idea of it bearing any flaws, Ultimecia's Castle is in great disarray and has obviously long before fallen into decay.
However, it's still interesting enough to not be totally disregarded and is a fair enough point for consideration if there is other evidence to support the notion. Also -- and not that this is terribly, if at all, relevant -- we don't know that the SeeDs attacked Ultimecia first. The Orphanage was likely their base of operations or one of them, at least.
Anyway, this matter is some interesting information that's not necessarily relevant on its own, but could possibly serve to accentuate other evidence if it is present.
In regard to Ultimecia's appearance in the ending FMV, there's really not a lot to indicate that the appearance of Ultimecia's face was not meant to bear any greater significance than when Edea's face appeared, but it's not very compelling on its own, or even with the Artemisia information. As for a resemblance between Ultimecia and Rinoa, it should be noted that one can compare against or impose the faces of Selphie, Ellone, and Edea over Rinoa's, and all bear strong resemblances to her, as well. In a game in which all characters are designed by the same Person, and especially with it being a character designer known for making his female characters look similar to one another -- and also when the same actor did the facial modeling for more than one of these characters -- there are going to be resemblances in their facial features, something which must be kept in mind as their similarities are not necessarily indicative of there being an indication of some connection between the characters, either as them being related to one another, or as being the same Person:
Rinoa
Edea
Selphie
Ellone
A good point is made, however, in regard to the differences in Ultimecia and Rinoa's bodies alone not being enough to disregard the possibility of there being a connection between the two. As for the matter of the ending FMV, it seems to again require already assuming that Rinoa is Ultimecia in order to conclude that the scene was intended to infer something of that nature, but there's nothing to dismiss it as a possible indication if there is otherwise strong support for the notion.
On the matter of the Sorceress' wings, on both occasions in which the feathers appear around Rinoa in the opening, the feathers appear in the wake of Squall's Gunblade passing, so it's not necessarily intended for the feathers to be making a statement about Rinoa alone. They could simply be intended to be foreshadowing of the mood of the game itself or of the dire situations that were yet to come.
Anyway, if the Sorceress Power caused one Sorceress to develop wings, it doesn't seem very far-fetched for it to allow any other to do so, though it's true that Rinoa and Ultimecia are the only ones ever specifically seen with them. Though, by that same token, if it's being argued that Rinoa's physiology can change into Ultimecia's because the physiology of other Sorceresses have undergone far more dramatic transformartions, it's equally logical that any other Sorceress could have grown wings.
This matter isn't a huge point in favor of the theory, but it does have a fair bit of grounding. On its own, it may not do much, like with the possible origin of Ultimecia's name or the ending FMV of the game, but if coupled with those and other stronger evidence, it would certainly be relevant and extremely worthy of note. Further, it can't be adequately contradicted as a point in favor of the theory. However, by the same token, without further evidence to support the theory, it remains merely a point of possible foreshadowing toward dire situations ahead, specifically in the area of extraordinary circumstances falling between Squall and Rinoa to nearly keep them apart on several occasions.
As for the final matter brought up within The Theory, when using Scan on Griever, the following information is given: "In Squall's mind, the strongest GF. Through Ultimecia's power, continues fighting without vanishing."
Note the aspect about it being "In Squall's mind, the strongest GF." This means one of two things: 1) Either Griever was an idea in Squall's head that Ultimecia pulled out and gave form to during the battle, or 2) Griever was a creature that already existed and which Squall had known about.
In regard to the first possibility, Ultimecia does frequently cause party members to lose an entire stock of a specific Spell during the battle against her. This suggests that she is, indeed, capable of reaching into the mind of another and extracting something. Further, a translation of Ultimecia's Summoning of Griever from the Japanese Version of the game would suggest Griever was created from the feelings -- and, thereby, the thoughts -- of those facing her: (Translated by the same fellow that translated the information concerning Ultimecia's death in Sir Bahamut's document.) "Ultimecia: Your feelings, I shall summon the most powerful of things [from them]! The more strongly you feel, that will be what shall torment you. Fufu."
In regard to the second possibility, Squall owns several items that feature Griever, including his ring, his necklace, the small emblem dangling from a chain connected to the handle of his Gunblade, and a large symbol on the lid of the case in which his Revolver Gunblade came, seen
here and
here.
It should further be noted that Squall already knew of the legendary GF Bahamut:
(From the beginning of the battle with Bahamut in the Deep Sea Research Center.)
Bahamut: "I am... Bahamut."
Squall: "The legendary GF...."
If he knew of one legendary GF, it stands to reason that he might have known of another, one that is said to have been regarded as the strongest in his mind, this possibly intended to mean "in his opinion." In either case, Griever was most certainly either an idea in Squall's head or a being that he already was aware of. Further, there were more items bearing Griever's symbol than just Squall's ring. There's nothing about Griever that actually supports the theory that Rinoa is Ultimecia.
In response to the concept of "Rinoa is Ultimecia" itself, something else worthy of note is that Ultimecia attempted to kill Rinoa several times. The first time was when she sent the Iguions to kill her. She later tries again in Galbadia Garden if Rinoa is in the party. Even if she is not, Ultimecia possesses Rinoa for a brief moment and uses her to pass a message to Seifer, and then sends Rinoa into a coma.
Later, she uses Rinoa to disable the locks on Adel's tomb, so as to free the elder Sorceress. Immediately after, she ditches Rinoa in space, leaving her to die.
If Rinoa were her past self, we can reasonably assume she would be aware of it to some extent, even if insane, as she would be witnessing her own past and the events that led up to her dive into insanity. Granted, if one is making the argument that Rinoa would have forgotten her past completely due to the use of GFs across several centuries, that would present reasonable grounds, perhaps, for her not being aware of the past. That, however, is part backwards reasoning (as it would require already believing Ultimecia to be Rinoa) and part assumption of something not supported and which could only be assumed if one had previously used backwards reasoning (that Rinoa was Ultimecia and had forgotten the past due to GF usage).
Things That Might Be Used To Argue Against the Theory, But Which Really Don't Contradict It
Rinoa Dying In The Final Battle:
Possible Contradiction: Since Rinoa can die and be absorbed into time in the final battle with Ultimecia, if she were Ultimecia's past self, that should erase Rinoa's future. In other words, it should erase Ultimecia's own state of being in the present.
Why It Isn't A Contradiction: While Rinoa can die in the final battle with Ultimecia and be absorbed into time and Ultimecia not vanish, with the normal flow of time already skewed by Time Compression, Ultimecia was possibly outside the normal flow of time, and, thus, protected. For that matter, she was likely already in possession of the Sorceress Power of all those Sorceresses killed by Squall and the others when they entered the Time Compressed World, and perhaps by virtue of this and being the one who cast Time Compression, she was somehow protected in that regard. For that matter, this would require questioning why Squall, Irvine, Zell, Selphie, Quistis, and Rinoa hadn't already faded out of existence due to their own pasts being swallowed up by Time Compression already.
Rinoa Leaving Her Proper Place In The Time Stream:
Possible Contradiction: Rinoa left the time stream at the moment that Adel died. She and SeeD traveled into the future. Ultimecia would have no longer had a past beyond the point of Adel's death if she were Rinoa. When SeeD got to the future, they would not have found Ultimecia there, for Rinoa would not have been able to become her, being that she left the time stream before she ever became her. Even with Rinoa returning to the exact second that she left the timeline, until she returned to the past again, there shouldn't be an Ultimecia for her to encounter in the future.
Why It Isn't A Contradiction: Again, there was no longer a normal flow of time due to Time Compression. To argue that Ultimecia should have vanished because her past self no longer remained along a timeline that itself no longer existed even while the past self continued to exist would be completely illogical, especially in light of Squall and the others not vanishing, despite their own pasts having been absorbed into time.
Conclusion
Many points used to argue in favor of the theory either already require having accepted it as fact, in which case the conclusion would be used as support for the evidence that's supposed to support the conclusion (a logical fallacy known as "circular reasoning" that absolutely is never valid in a debate), or require making some leaps in assumption that aren't definitively supported, and, in at least one case (immortality), are defeated by the concept of Occam's Razor ("All things being equal, the most simple explanation is the best").
By the same token, however, most of these things are never definitively contradicted by the source material, in which case their potential as being possible remains. Of course, stating that because they're not contradicted, they're as valid for consideration as if they were supported wouldn't be logical either, as that's a logical fallacy in which the lack of any contradicting evidence is used to the effort of arguing validity for that which has no support (or, at the least, no concrete support), something else that has no place in debate.
In conclusion, while it can be argued that the possibility is there, that it should be up for consideration as fact (or "canon" as it is called in fandom) cannot be, as there's simply too much to be assumed that isn't supported or hinted toward, and too much that essentially requires the audience to write it themselves, taking it out of the hands of the actual writer and assuming intent for them.
The Final Word: While POSSIBLE, the theory is in no way PLAUSIBLE